November 07, 201811/07/2018

Midterms in NC see huge turnout, mixed results

After months of campaigning and record high turnouts, candidates in North Carolina's 2018 midterms can finally sleep in. The results were mixed, however, with Democrats doing well in the state General Assembly races and picking up a seat on the state Supreme Court and Republicans wining all three competitive U.S. Congress seats and passing four of six of their constitutional amendments. 

The turnout shocked observers on all sides, coming in at 52 percent of registered voters. This is unheard of for a blue moon midterm, which tend to be in the low 40s or even the 30s, like in 2006 where the turnout was 36.6 percent according to board of elections data. Presidential years, for comparison, tend to be in the high 50s or 60s. 

Democrats break Republican supermajority in state legislature

A major story this election cycle is that Republicans' long hold over white, affluent suburbs is weakening. The dissolving of GOP supermajorities in the state House, and likely Senate as well, can mostly be attributed to this trend. 

The Democrats picked up a series of wins in Mecklenburg, Wake and other suburban and urban counties. At one point, it looked as if the entire Mecklenburg GOP state House delegation would fall, with Reps. Stone, Dulin and Brawley all trailing. Stone and Dulin did both end up losing, but some late-tallied votes put Brawley up about 50 votes, likely triggering a recount. 

Without supermajorities in both chambers, Republicans will no longer be able to override vetoes by Gov. Cooper. This gives Democrats real power because Republicans will need to negotiate with them to get important legislation and budgeting done. 

Congressional seats held by GOP

Breaking the suburban trend towards Democrats some, NC-2 in the Triangle area, NC-9 in the Charlotte area and NC-13 in the Triad area all remained in Republican hands.

These races got national attention as potential pickups for Democrats, but Republicans George Holding, Mark Harris and Ted Budd came out ahead. 

All three districts are a mix of rural and suburban areas so the suburban exodus wasn't enough to fully flip them to Democratic control as the GOP continued to consolidate gains outside population centers. 

Amendments and the Supreme Court

With federal seats favoring Republicans and state legislative seats favoring Democrats, the remainder of key campaigns also produced mixed results. 

The state Supreme Court was a three way battle with two Republicans and one Democrat. The Republicans cried foul because one of the (Rs) on the ballot, Chris Anglin, switched parties right before the race began and surrounded himself with influential Democrats. They believe he was acting as a spoiler with a goal of splitting Republican votes. 

Whether or not that was his goal, the Republican votes were spread between the two enough that neither came close to challenging Anita Earls, who will bring the Democratic control of the N.C. Supreme Court to a 5-2 majority. 

The amendments on the ballot covered a wide variety of issues. The voters mostly approved the measures, passing the 7 percent income tax cap, voter ID requirements, a guarantee to the right to hunt and fish and expanded protections for victims of crime to know updates on the status and location of the offender. 

Two of the amendments failed to pass though. Both regarded the balance of power between the legislature and the governor. One would have passed some power over appointments on the elections and ethics board to the legislature and the other would do the same with filling judicial vacancies. 

High profile Republicans, including former governors Martin and McCrory, opposed these two measures. This lack of full GOP unity on the issues likely contributed to their weaker performance.